Third Time Lucky for the King of the North?

19 June 2026 | Rob Fellows

The results from Makerfield came through in the early hours of this morning and, whichever side of the political divide you sit on, they are difficult to ignore. Andy Burnham secured 54.8% of the vote, comfortably outperforming every opinion poll published during the campaign. Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon finished second on 34.5%, while the newly formed Restore Britain attracted 6.8%. Labour held the seat, and held it convincingly.

Before going any further, a declaration of interest. I’ve known Andy Burnham for many years and supported him in both of his previous bids to lead the Labour Party. I backed him in 2010 when he lost out to Ed Miliband and again in 2015 before Jeremy Corbyn’s insurgent campaign transformed the political landscape. Some will therefore assume that today’s result fills me with unbridled enthusiasm. The truth is rather more nuanced.

There is no question that Burnham delivered an impressive victory. Not only did he significantly improve upon Labour’s 2024 performance in the constituency, but he also secured the party’s strongest result in Makerfield since 2017. Turnout reached almost 59%, making it the highest turnout in a Westminster by-election for nearly seven years. In a political era characterised by apathy and disengagement, persuading more people to vote is an achievement in itself. Persuading a majority of them to back your candidate is even more noteworthy.

However, political results never exist in a vacuum and it is important not to draw simplistic conclusions from what happened yesterday. This was not an ordinary by-election campaign. Labour threw an extraordinary amount of resource into Makerfield. Senior politicians, campaign organisers, activists and volunteers descended on the constituency in numbers that few by-elections ever experience. The seat became a focal point for the party and, in many ways, a test of whether Andy Burnham could successfully make the transition from Mayor of Greater Manchester to a politician with renewed national relevance.

That context matters because it raises an obvious question. While Labour was able to concentrate enormous effort on a single constituency, could it replicate the same success across dozens of seats at a General Election? The answer is far less certain. What worked in Makerfield may not automatically translate to a national campaign fought simultaneously in every corner of the country.

Nevertheless, today’s result will inevitably reignite speculation about Burnham’s future ambitions. The argument made by his supporters is a straightforward one. He has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to win elections. He has built a strong personal brand beyond Westminster and, unlike many contemporary politicians, appears comfortable engaging with voters who feel increasingly disconnected from mainstream politics. At a time when Labour continues to face challenges from Reform UK, Burnham’s ability to connect with working-class communities will be viewed by many as one of his greatest strengths.

Yet for me, the most significant story from Makerfield is not Burnham’s victory but the combined vote secured by Reform UK and Restore Britain. Together they attracted more than 41% of those who turned out to vote. That figure should concern every mainstream political party, not just Labour.

Too often, established politicians dismiss support for parties such as Reform as little more than a protest vote. I think that is a mistake. Large numbers of voters are sending a clear message that they feel ignored, unheard and increasingly disconnected from the political establishment. Whether those concerns relate to the economy, immigration, public services, community identity or a broader sense that the country is not working as it should, the frustration is genuine and cannot simply be wished away.

This is where the debate around Burnham becomes particularly interesting. Few politicians understand these voters better than he does. Throughout his career he has demonstrated a willingness to engage with communities that many others overlook. However, understanding a problem and solving it are not the same thing. The challenge facing Labour is not merely identifying why voters are drifting towards Reform and other insurgent parties; it is developing a compelling response that persuades them to return.

That is why I remain cautious about some of the excitement that will inevitably follow today’s result. Andy Burnham is undoubtedly a talented politician. He is personable, media-savvy and has a proven electoral track record. Yet we have seen his leadership ambitions tested before. On two previous occasions he entered the contest with significant support and considerable goodwill, only for the momentum to fade as the campaign progressed.

Ultimately, Labour’s challenge is bigger than any one individual. The party does not simply need a new leader; it needs a renewed sense of purpose and a convincing offer to voters who have lost faith in traditional politics. Being different from Keir Starmer is not, in itself, a political strategy. Nor is pointing to a successful by-election, however impressive that success may have been.

Makerfield was unquestionably a good night for Andy Burnham. It reinforced his reputation as one of Labour’s most effective campaigners and demonstrated once again that he remains a formidable political force. Whether it represents the beginning of a genuine national movement behind him, or simply a highly successful by-election campaign fought under uniquely favourable circumstances, remains to be seen.

As someone who has backed Andy twice before, I wish him well. But before I start believing that the King of the North is finally destined for the throne, I would like to hear much more about how he intends to address the deep political frustrations that drove more than four in ten voters towards parties outside the mainstream. Until then, Makerfield should be viewed as an important result, but not necessarily a decisive one.