The threat of Reform in Wales
14 July 2025 | Rob Fellows
In the latest edition of Quatro Insights, Rob Fellows reflects on Reform’s burgeoning role in the Welsh political landscape.
As political attention turns to the 2026 Senedd election, one question is emerging quietly, but urgently, in the minds of strategists across Cardiff Bay and Westminster: Could Reform UK gain a foothold in Wales?
Reform’s insurgency during this May’s County Council Election sent shockwaves through British politics, knocking the Conservatives out of control in a number of places where they’ve been historically strong, and establishing Reform as a serious threat. Notable damage was dealt in Kent County Council, where the Conservatives lost 57 of the authority’s 81 seats, and Reform UK gained 57.
At the General Election, although all Reform seats were won in England, Wales wasn’t immune to the Party’s influence. In several constituencies, Reform placed second, often outperforming Plaid Cymru. In Neath and East Swansea, for example, MP Carolyn Harris won with a majority of under 7,000 votes over her Reform counterpart, with Plaid Cymru garnering just half the votes of Reform. The Conservatives, who had in 2019 placed second in the constituency, shot down to fourth place. With proportional representation being implemented in the Senedd next year, these types of results could easily convert into seats.
Crucially, Reform UK isn’t trying to win policy arguments. Their strategy is far more disruptive: exploit dissatisfaction with devolved services, undermine confidence in the Welsh Government, and tap into cultural flashpoints – from bringing back blast furnaces to 20mph speed limits— to drive anti-establishment sentiment.
They’re betting on a simple formula: low turnout + political apathy = outsized influence. And unless the mainstream parties take this seriously, it might just work.
What does this mean for Renewable Energy?
Many of the areas most vulnerable to Reform’s appeal are former Labour heartlands in the South Wales Valleys, the North Wales coast, and disenfranchised post-industrial communities. If Reform successfully taps into local frustration, local renewable energy schemes could become flashpoints in wider political arguments.
In West Northamptonshire, we have an example of how that frustration could materialise, with the Reform-led County Council recently committing itself to being the first local authority to scrap net zero. In Lincolnshire, Mayor Andrea Jenkyns has taken meetings with fracking companies to put forward a ‘business argument’, in the face of the ‘homogenised’ Net Zero of the three mainstream parties. On a national level, Reform caused an uproar in February, when Deputy Leader Richard Tice threatened renewable energy companies with a windfall tax to compensate for Government subsidies the party felt were wrongly allocated.
In the case of sweeping Reform victories in the Senedd next year, developers will need to be hyper-sensitive to local sentiment and highly strategic in their engagement. There is some evidence that the economic argument on renewable energy holds water, and that Reforms leading figures won’t operate as a monolith on the issue. For example, Mayor Luke Campbell Hull has, when pressed on the issue in public questions, committed to putting local green energy jobs and businesses ahead of party politics.
However, whether this is an exception to the rule or an indicator of a general trend is yet to be seen. For now, public consultations, political risk assessments, and communications strategies will all need to anticipate increasing hostility to the Net Zero agenda.
Next Steps
For Welsh Labour, the challenge is stark. While still dominant, it cannot rely on historic loyalty. It must reconnect with communities where voters feel politically adrift and economically left behind. The most recent polling indicates that it could hold onto its marginal lead, but with a 27% share of the vote compared to Reform on 25% and Plaid Cymru on 21%, nothing is guaranteed.
Plaid Cymru faces a different problem: it must find a way to speak to voters outside its traditional cultural base, especially those who don’t prioritise independence but still crave radical change.
Ultimately, messaging that doesn’t engage with the genuine economic concerns of voters will leave space for parties like Reform to capitalise on public discontent. Parties that want to resist Reform’s rise in Wales need to go beyond rebuttal. They must reconnect locally, communicate boldly, and offer a sense of purpose that doesn’t sound like reheated manifestos. Developers should do the same, by gearing communication towards the economic and the hyper-local, rather than sweeping and distant Westminster agendas.
At Quatro, we are analysing key developments and future-proofing communication strategies for whatever political landscape lies ahead. You can keep informed through our Reform Watch, a round up of key updates, analysis and commentary on how the Party is influencing policy and public opinion in the UK. Email rfellows@quatro-pr.co.uk to discuss a subscription.