Storm in the Bay: What Plaid Cymru’s withdrawal from the Cooperation Agreement means for the Welsh Government
20 May 2024 | Admin
At this moment of instability in Welsh politics, Quatro reflects on Plaid Cymru’s withdrawal from the Cooperation Agreement and assesses how Vaughan Gething would fare in a no confidence motion. Some media outlets have branded Plaid Cymru’s withdrawal as “chaos for Welsh Government”, suggesting that Gething is set to be “forced out of power in a matter of weeks”.[i] While it is true that the scandal surrounding the new First Minister refuses to abate, it would take a great deal for Welsh Labour to oust Gething, and this would reflect very poorly on UK Labour’s brand with associated risks for Keir Starmer.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, Leader of Plaid Cymru, has cited the Dauson Environmental Group donation scandal, as well as the sacking of Minister for Social Partnership, Hannah Blythyn, as motivation for Plaid Cymru’s withdrawal from the Cooperation Agreement. ap Iorwerth expressed his Party’s position that Vaughan Gething displayed “a significant lack of judgement” in accepting donations from David John Neal, who was given a three-month suspended prison sentence for illegally dumping waste on the Gwent Levels. Addressing Blythyn’s sacking, ap Iorwerth passed broader commentary on Gething’s tenure as Leader, which he claimed “has been marred by controversy, a lack of transparency and serious questions about judgement.”[ii]
Hannah Blythyn’s shock dismissal followed the leaking of an exchange between Vaughan Gething and Welsh Labour Senedd Members stating that he was going to delete messages from during the pandemic. Gething has since stated that the messages were not related to government business but rather internal discussions within the Welsh Labour Senedd group. Though Blythyn has rejected the accusations, Minister for Health and Social Services, Eluned Morgan, has since defended the sacking and claimed that she is “happy” with the decision, as “the leak can definitely be traced to her phone.”[iii]
To many, Plaid Cymru’s outrage and withdrawal will be seen as feigned and politically expedient. With the Cooperation Agreement due to expire in December 2024 and a looming General Election, former General Secretary of Welsh Labour Dave Costa, tweeted that “Plaid Cymru think it will help their chances at an autumn UK General Election if they’re seen as equidistant from Welsh Labour and Conservatives…the rest is pious claptrap.” Plaid Cymru will be eager to define their offer to voters ahead of the General Election and distancing themselves from the controversy surrounding Welsh Labour is a convenient opportunity to do so.
Accusations of racial prejudice
Welsh Labour’s Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Committee have said the media’s treatment of Gething is beyond “what one can reasonably call fair scrutiny” and noted that “we are seeing [subconscious racial prejudice] play out before us.”[iv] Despite the measured statement, there has been significant backlash from the media, with some outlets claiming that Gething’s top team have weaponised race in his defence.
Huw Irranca-Davies, Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change and Rural Affairs, has called for reflection, though agreeing that those in political office should expect “relentless forensic scrutiny.” Dawn Bowden has rallied around Gething more emphatically, tweeting that “the narrative around Vaughan Gething has all the hallmarks of institutional racism that I thought we had left behind a long time ago.”[v]
Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Conservatives have denied that their criticisms have been influenced by racial prejudice. ap Iorwerth said that “the firm scrutiny, by myself and colleagues, of the First Minister has been anything other than scrutiny of his actions and of his judgement and precisely nothing to do with the skin colour of anybody”. Andrew RT Davies, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, said: “this is about the confidence people have in the First Minister and his judgement.” [vi]
The prospect of a no-confidence motion looms
Andrew RT Davies has briefed the media that he will be holding conversations with other parties to assess the level of support, though that he expects a no confidence motion to be “odds on”. However tabling arrangements and the Whitsun break mean this may not happen for three weeks. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have briefed that they are glad that Plaid Cymru have distanced themselves from Welsh Labour.
Though opposition parties seem to be united, for a vote of no confidence to be successful, at least one Welsh Labour MS would have to vote against their party. Counsel General Mick Antoniw insists that Welsh Labour Senedd Members are united behind the First Minister. There are rumblings, however, that some Welsh Labour MSs may be considering moving against the First Minister. However, at present, this is merely speculation. The ramifications of this degree of internal division playing out in the public domain would deal a blow to UK Labour. If Welsh Labour were to oust the First Minister, this would hand UK Labour’s opponents a clear attack line and could mar the achievements of Welsh Labour in power to date.
[i] David Wilcock for Daily Mail Online (17th May 2024), ‘Chaos for Welsh government as Plaid Cymru collapses power-sharing deal with Welsh Labour, meaning Vaughan Gething could become the second First Minister forced out of power in a matter of weeks’, Available at: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13430513/Welsh-government-Plaid-Cymru-Labour-Vaughan-Gething.html [Accessed 20th May 2024]
[ii] Mark Palmer and David Deans for BBC News, (20th May 2024) ‘Evidence supports Gething leak sacking – minister’, Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c144l0ge0g0o#:~:text=Ms%20Morgan%20declined%20to%20go,way%20back%20for%20Ms%20Blythyn [Accessed 20th May 2024]
[iii] ibid
[iv] Teleri Glyn Jones for BBC News, (19th May 2024), ‘FM’s critics should look at themselves – minister’ Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce5502k2pxdo [Accessed 20th May 2024]
[v] Emily Price for Nation Cymru, (20th May 2024), ‘Welsh Labour divide deepens over weekend’ Available at: https://nation.cymru/news/welsh-labour-divide-deepens-over-weekend/ Accessed 20th May 2024]
[vi] Teleri Glyn Jones for BBC News, (19th May 2024), ‘FM’s critics should look at themselves – minister’ Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce5502k2pxdo [Accessed 20th May 2024]