Beyond protest: what Caerphilly reveals about Wales’ political future

24 October 2025 | Rob Fellows

By Rob Fellows, COO

I’ve been following the Caerphilly by-election closely and wrote earlier this month about the “deepening erosion of trust in Labour’s Welsh leadership” — a trend I believed would prove costly both in Caerphilly and beyond. Yesterday’s result confirmed that.

Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe won just 11% of the vote, while Plaid Cymru surged to victory with 47.4%. It’s a major blow for Labour, which has held the seat since the Senedd’s creation. Reform UK also made significant gains, capturing 36% of the vote.

Plaid’s win, however, underscores a broader truth: Labour’s struggles go far beyond the rise of Reform. The frustration runs deeper — with a party that has governed Wales for a quarter of a century yet continues to face mounting challenges in healthcare, education, and internal leadership.

By-elections are often dismissed as protest votes — temporary flashes of discontent. But Caerphilly feels different. It reflects a deeper political realignment, where traditional loyalties are giving way to volatility and voters are increasingly willing to break long-held habits.

For Plaid Cymru, this victory offers genuine momentum and a signal that their message can resonate beyond their traditional heartlands. For Reform UK, it’s a glimpse of legitimacy in Welsh politics that might have seemed impossible a few years ago. For Labour, it’s a shot across the bow — the question is whether they have the time to turn the ship around.

At Quatro, we are closely analysing these developments and helping our clients future-proof their communications strategies for whatever political landscape emerges next.